CAT MODELS AND FOOD SECURITY

With extreme weather events increasingly impacting food security in certain countries and following the experience of the food security crises of 2007/8 and 2010, I collaborated with Mohan Sharma on the Use of Catastrophe Risk Models in Assessing Sovereign Food Security for Risk Transfer that was published by the World Bank in 2015.

The report discusses the importance of food security from a government perspective, outlines the core modules of a catastrophe risk model and reveals how vulnerability functions can be developed for agricultural perils, shown at the example of a drought. Different case studies are used to discuss how model outputs can be related to food security indicators. The report underlines the complexity in modelling crop growth conditions and helps translate shocks to food production systems into food security concerns.